Notes

Notes from
the work.

Stablecoin banking, cross-border trade, and the products forming between crypto and fiat.

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Hedging V2

Prediction markets put a market price on the political events that shape cross-border trade. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, a trader shipping into the Gulf can buy 'no' on reopening by July 31 at 74 cents: the position pays out in exactly the world where the goods don't ship.

prediction-marketshedgingpolymarketkalshi
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  1. The future of Eurodollars are stablecoins

    Eurodollars, dollars issued by banks outside the US, built today's dollar dominance, but they carry opaque credit risk and crawl through a chain of correspondent banks. Stablecoins solve both: verifiable 1-1 backing and direct, 24/7 settlement. They are the next Eurodollar.

    stablecoinseurodollarspaymentscommodities
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  2. How stablecoins climb the commodity chain

    Stablecoin adoption in commodity trade starts at the producer escaping local USD banking and is pulled up the chain, tier by tier, to the brokers, refineries and traders who settle instantly instead of waiting on SWIFT.

    commoditiesstablecoinssupply-chainemerging-markets
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  3. Settling the gold chain in gold

    Gold is converted into dollars and back at every handover of its supply chain, and every holder hedges the same travelling price risk separately. Settling the middle of the chain in XAUT, a gold-backed token, collapses those conversions to two and hedges the position by construction.

    commoditiesgoldtokenisationstablecoinssupply-chain
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  4. The weekend price of oil

    CME oil futures close for 49 hours every weekend. This spring, six weekends of the Iran war broke inside that window, and the only live oil tape belonged to a perpetuals venue. A fill-level record of what happened next.

    commoditiesoilperpshyperliquidmarket-structure
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  5. How the AI build-out moved through Taiwan's chip supply chain

    Every AI server in the world is built from parts made and listed in Taiwan. Over three years those companies were repriced one tier at a time, as the boom worked its way down the supply chain from chips to memory.

    taiwanequitiesaisemiconductors
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  6. The perp basis on gold

    The wholesale gold lease market has paid carry for decades, restricted to the LBMA tier. A separate yield now exists on Hyperliquid's PAXG perpetual: funding was positive in 86% of hourly windows over the last twelve months, averaging 7.6% annualised, accessible to anyone with an exchange account.

    commoditiesgoldperpshyperliquid
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